First, impeachment is a 1.4 chance. To land, this bet requires the House of Representatives passing one article of impeachment. Note Trump does not need to be removed from office – that would come later in the process. The Trump impeachment odds Vegas proved this to be a longshot at the beginning but since November 2018, the odds of this to become reality have been shortened. The Trump impeachment odds today show that he is +250 likely to be impeached and -375 to finish his mandate. Convicted in Senate impeachment trial Probability generated from the betting markets ( Betfair ) 9776 minutes ago. Betting markets are amongst the most accurate indicators of political outcomes.
Despite a defiant tone struck by President Donald Trump during a shouty exit from the White House to assembled media (where he could be seen reading large handwritten notes stating 'no quid pro quo'), the impeachment hearings against him are not going well.
How bad?
So bad that oddsmakers now view his impeachment as a matter of not 'if' but 'when.'
First, impeachment is a 1.4 chance. To land, this bet requires the House of Representatives passing one article of impeachment. Note Trump does not need to be removed from office – that would come later in the process. The Trump impeachment odds Vegas proved this to be a longshot at the beginning but since November 2018, the odds of this to become reality have been shortened. The Trump impeachment odds today show that he is +250 likely to be impeached and -375 to finish his mandate. Convicted in Senate impeachment trial Probability generated from the betting markets ( Betfair ) 9776 minutes ago. Betting markets are amongst the most accurate indicators of political outcomes.
Despite a defiant tone struck by President Donald Trump during a shouty exit from the White House to assembled media (where he could be seen reading large handwritten notes stating 'no quid pro quo'), the impeachment hearings against him are not going well.
How bad?
So bad that oddsmakers now view his impeachment as a matter of not 'if' but 'when.'
Donald Trump impeachment odds
Will Donald Trump Be Impeached? | Odds |
---|---|
Yes | -300 |
No | +250 |
President Trump is now priced at -300 to be impeached at the European exchange Betfair. That moneyline wager means you'd need to bet $300 to win $100. The 'No' odds are +250, meaning a $100 bet wins you $250.
Crowd-sourced platform Smarkets is pricing a similar outcome. 'Will the House of Representatives pass articles of impeachment against Trump during his first term' is at nearly 83%. Back vs lay betting.
President Trump 2020 US presidential election odds
Even though Trump's impeachment seems likely, he's still the favorite to be re-elected. The 2020 presidential election odds remain unchanged as of today, with Trump +130 to win the White House again.
He's followed by Elizabeth Warren (+450). As Pete Buttigieg surges in Iowa, his odds continue to improve (+800) as well.
Will Trump Resign?
Vegas Odds On Trump Being Convicted
This is an important distinction. It remains very hard to see 23 Republican Senators convicting their president. Trump's base remains loyal. However, a few more weeks of this terrible news cycle, which would be elevated in the case of a Senate trial, and vulnerable incumbents may start to panic. Most notably Senate leader Mitch McConnell is facing a serious challenge in Kentucky.
Pressure could, theoretically at least, be brought to bear. The case of the last president to leave office early – Richard Nixon – is pertinent. ‘Tricky Dicky' never faced the Senate trial – he resigned, handing power to his Vice President Gerald Ford, and duly received a pardon.
Impeachment Odds In Vegas
Whether he listens or not, Trump must be receiving similar legal advice. As Robert Mueller made clear, he is not immune from prosecution after leaving office. Asides from the particular allegations that led to impeachment, dozens of criminal and congressional investigations are ongoing, for which Trump could yet be liable. The implications of the Russia investigation have not fully played out yet – Roger Stone's trial in November will likely release information from redacted sections of the Mueller Report.